Denver Broncos NFL Team Column
| 27 April 2008 |
Denver’s 2008 Draft Recap
So the big question has been answered; who did we get? Below are the 2008 Denver Draft picks in order showing round and overall pick.
1 (12th overall) Ryan Clady OT Bosie State
2 (42nd overall) Eddie Royal WR Virginia Tech
4 (108th overall) Kory Lichtensteiger C Bowling Green
4 (119th overall) Jack Williams CB Kent
5 (139th overall) Ryan Torain RB Arizona State
5 (148th overall) Carlton Powell DT Virginia Tech
6 (183rd overall) Spencer Larson ILB Arizona
7 (220th overall) Joshua Barrett S Arizona State
7 (227th overall) Peyton Hills FB Arkansas
I am very surprised by a couple of picks and disappointed that Denver didn’t really solidify the interior of the D-Line with someone other than the big nobody from Virginia Tech. If Marcus Thomas gets hurt, arrested, or decides to leave his life here and become a monk, than Denver will get plowed in the trenches by any number of running backs.
That said, I think Denver did a very smart thing by surrounding Jay Cutler with protection and weapons. This draft was about building a top end offense to compete with the likes of San Diego, New England, and Indy. I think Shanahan is doing what he does best and that is offense. No longer is Denver trying to be the Ravens or Bears winning games 13-10. What this draft shows me is that Denver is going to protect Cutler and give him time to rip apart defenses. Also, I see the makings of a power running game that will take pressure off of the young QB. Here is the main difference between the 2008 Broncos and the 2007 Broncos. In 2008 the average weight of the O-line was 294 lbs. The average weight of the 2008 O-line with the rookies starting is 311 lbs. Also we now have a true Full Back to pick up the blitz. Denver is looking to win games 35-31.
I really hate grading picks because we have no idea what these guys are going to become in the future. I am sure that Cleveland got a grade A for draft Tim Couch that year. All you can do is grade what the team addressed or tries to address and if they were smart about it. I give the Broncos a grade A. I think they were very smart in whom they took and every player has a chance to make the team and contribute. They didn’t make really any unnecessary reaches (a 5th round pick for anyone you like is not a reach) and set themselves up for having depth and strength on offense and special teams (arguably the weak links in the last couple of years.) They also didn’t mortgage future draft picks for one player this year.
The Picks I really like
Ryan Clady- O Tackle: I liked Chris Williams from Vandy better, but Clady looks like a winner to protect Cutlers blindside for 10 years. 6-6 and 320 lbs helps too.
Eddie Royal WR: We needed a return man and Denver got one. This guy has sweet moves and is fearless. This is probably the most electric rookie to watch in 2008.
Kory Lichtensteiger- Center: This was a very smart pick. The anchor of the offensive line Tom Nalen will be done in 2009. He may not even make it through 2008. We need a Center. I can breathe knowing that we have a potential replacement.
Jack Williams- CB: Another player that is high character and will be able to contribute
immediately on special teams and nickel D. I hate to say this, but D. Foxworth is not a good corner. He watches receivers catch balls in front of him without making a play on the ball. A corners job is to keep passes from being completed not just tackle a guy after a 12 yard reception.
Peyton Hills – FB: It is amazing that this guy dropped into the 7th round. He is a great fullback that can block, pick up the blitz, and even catch. We have been missing that since Howard Griffith retired. I really hope Hills pans out.
The picks I scratched my head at: Ryan Torain – RB: This is the type of guy that Denver could have picked up as a Free Agent. He is a between the tackles back, but this should have been a DT. If it was I would have been happier. I think this guy may not make the team and a free agent acquisition will. Carlton Powell – DT: I guess this guy is good, but there were other guys available that I thought were rated higher.
| 27 April 2008 |
Broncos Draft: Final Thoughts on Denver and the great OT class of 2008
Heading into the final week before the Draft we have seen some movement in free agency that lets us believe that there are only a few options for the Broncos to take. The two big positions that Denver needs to address is Offensive and Defensive Tackle. One or both of these will be addressed with the first two picks on Saturday. The signings of wide receivers Darrell Jackson and Sammie Parker will give Denver 10 receivers going into training camp. This pretty much eliminates the drafting of a receiver, one of Denver’s positions of need, for 2008. Also they did sign some help along the offensive line with Casey Weigmann from KC. The Broncos are in a position that I think best player available just won’t help them out as they need impact at key positions. Rule one when predicting Denver’s draft is that they will always try to trade up to get their man.
Here are the scenarios I see playing out for the first round. I have ranked them in what I think Denver will try to accomplish first.
Plan A: Denver trades up for a DT; Dorsey or Ellis
This could be as high as the no. 6 overall spot with the NY Jets and as low as no. 8 with the Baltimore Ravens. The most likely trade partner, however, is with New England at no. 7. They just came off of a nearly perfect season and have no major holes. They also like to wheel and deal on draft day. With the two top prospects possibly both being available at 7 and being Denver’s greatest position at need I see them wanting to get one of the big DT’s if a deal can be worked out. To move up that high Denver will have to give up their first round and one of their fourth rounder’s and another 2nd rounder. Denver probably would like to trade a 2nd or 3rd round pick from the 2009 draft because they don’t have a 3rd round in this year’s draft. I doubt that Jets DT Dewayne Robertson will be in a Denver Jersey. Denver also has let go DT Anton Burton so we know that they are looking for a starter form the draft. The only two guys that have grades as “impact players” are Dorsey and Ellis. So this is what is really worth watching in the first 7 picks if Denver Trades up. This is Denver’s day one plan A draft strategy. Remember they almost pulled off trading up for the number 2 overall pick to take WR Calvin Johnson last year. Denver might even blow everyone away and try to get into the #2 spot where ST Louis is picking.
Plan B: Denver stays put Drafts an Offensive Tackle; Williams or Clady
I honestly think that they will be able to trade up, but in case they don’t pull it off this is the next best thing is just make the pick at no.12. Make no mistake if Ellis and Dorsey are gone this will be a pick for protecting Jay Cutler’s blind side. This will be an Offensive Tackle. Sure there may be a Linebacker, Running Back or whatever with a bit higher grade here. The value however at offensive tackle is huge and running back is not a need. The two guys that will go here is either Clady from Boise or Williams for Vanderbilt. I think Williams will be the pick because of his intelligence. Because offensive line is about being smarter than the drooling bulldog across from you, intelligence is rated higher for the position. Vanderbilt is an “Ivy League” law school. Boise state is well, a football school. He also played in the SEC where the top pass rushers in college football reside.
Plan C: Trade Down – Take a lesser rated DT Kentwan Balmer add a 2nd round pick
I think that Denver will be entertaning picking up another first day pick lacking a third rounder. Also if they just don’t like what they see at 12 than it would be best to save money on your first pick and still get a guy you were targeting. I know Kentwan Balmer is on Denver’s draft board, but may not warrant the 12th spot. If they were picking below 20 and he was available they would draft him without a thought. The main suitors are Dallas, Detroit, Philly and Houston. All of these teams are looking to trade up for RBs and have decent relationships with Denver. They may be willing to take a 3rd rounder, but I have seen Denver past and in turned out bad in most cases. Denver may be just too burned from this strategy in the past to not take a player in the first round.
Shocking Possibilities
I would be shocked if Denver drafts a Wide Receiver in the first 4 rounds.
“ if Denver takes a Running Back.
“ if Denver moves into the top 5
“if Denver trades away its first pick for something next year
The Greatest “_____ Class” in 20 years since the great QB class of 1983
This is being tagged as the one of the greatest offensive tackle classes to come by in a long time. This kind of hype is built up by scouts and the NFL follows like lemmings. 6 to 8 guys at the same position get drafted in that first round as a result. What you have is hype set up for a position and a bunch of guys that shouldn’t be drafted in the first round are. Looking back at a couple of drafts where a certain position was taken in bulk in the first round you see a lot of busts. Why would anyone take the 6th or 7th best QB instead of the 1st or 2nd best RB with a first round pick is beyond me. Ineveitably someone points towards the QB class of 1983 where 6 QBs were taken in the first round. Out of that class you had arguably the best two QBs of all time and three hall of famers in Elway, Marino, and Kelly. Yes that worked out well for the three teams that ended up with those guys, but 4 teams waisted a first round pick on guys that didn’t warrant the pick. I did some analysis and there have been a couple of hype drafts and I think the results speak for themselves. Whenever hype happens don’t take the 7th best guy at a position in the first round. Take a look.
The truly great QB class of 1983 (11 Super Bowls were QBd by this class)
1983 | Super Bowl Apperences | ||
1st | John Elway | QB | 5 SB |
7th | Todd Blackledge | QB | |
14th | Jim Kelly | QB | 4 SB |
15th | Tony Eason | QB | 1 SB |
24th | Ken Obrien | QB | |
27th | Dan Marino | QB | 1 SB |
The great QB class of 1999 (2 studs 3 total duds)
Taken | ||
1st | Tim Couch | QB |
2nd | Donovan McNabb | QB |
3rd | Akili Smith | QB |
11th | Daunte Culpepper | QB |
12th | Cade McNown | QB |
The Great D-Line class of 2003 (This was about 50/50)
4th | Dewaye Robertson | DT |
6th | Jonathon Sulivan | DT |
9th | Kevin Williams | DE |
10th | Terrell Suggs | DE/OLB |
12th | Jimmy Kennedy | DT |
13th | Ty Warren | DE |
14th | Michael Haynes | DE |
15th | Jerome McDougle | DE |
18th | Calvin Pace | DE |
25th | William Joeseph | DT |
32nd | Tyler Brayton | DE |
The Great RB class of 1987 (This entire class was a bust except for Fullwood)
3rd | Alonzo Highsmith | RB | Bum knee done after 4 years |
4th | Brent Fullwood | RB | Pro Bowler |
14th | D.J. Dozier | RB | bad at 2 sports |
19th | Paul Palmer | RB | out of football after 3 years |
21st | Roger Vick | RB | out of football after 3 years |
24th | Rod Bernstine | RB | Never rushed over 816 yards |
25th | Terrence Flagler | RB | Never rushed over 250 yards |
The “Great” WR class of 2004
1k seasons | ||
3rd | Larry Fitzgerald | 2 |
7th | Roy Williams | 1 |
9th | Reggie Williams | |
13th | Lee Evans | 1 |
15th | Michael Clayton | 1 |
29th | Michael Jenkins | |
31st | Reshaun Woods |
Denver Draft Hopes: The McMurtry Draft Strategy
In my previous article I said that the Broncos are going to take more than one player at their greatest need in a Defensive Tackle. This is my hope anyway and in part how I think a team should build a roster. I am calling this the McMurtry Draft strategy in case it becomes famous and I can get a gig as a draft consultant charging ungodly amounts of money to desperate NFL Teams looking for answers. The basic premise is to draft 3 or 4 players at a major position of need in the same draft to ensure that a position is filled and creating a position of strength for future roster moves such as trading with other teams. This is essentially hedging against first round busts and turning a position of weakness into one of strength.
Rules of the McMurtry Draft Strategy
1. Take at least 3 players at a major position of need except at QB, MLB, K, P
2. Take 2 of those players in the first 4 rounds including round 1
3. If you are drafting very high in the first round for the value of the best player at position of need trade down. (Example you are drafting at 5 and the best player of need isn’t valued at a rank until the 15-20 range then you should trade down and obtain more picks.)
4. First Round Exception: If you need a QB or MLB and can trade up to get franchise talent do it and pass on the need for a franchise player. This is risky but for the right positions. Trading up for a Peyton Manning or a Ray Lewis type player is worth it.
In looking at NFL Draft history and team strategies I would have to say that there are more booms than busts, and that too many teams look to address a major area of need with a single player. In a sport where there are multiple players who can play the same role of a unit it would make more sense to draft multiple players at a position. What I mean by this is that if you are in need at WR, RB, OT, G, C, OLB CB, ,Safety, DT, DE, you should not just draft the best player at that position and think you have filled the hole. An OLB can play DE, a WR can play TE, etc… Only QB and Middle Linebacker are positions on offense and/or defense that are extremely unique and nearly impossible to move a player into that position from another position. Those positions not only require physical skill, but a leadership role for their perspective units, as well as the ability to read what the opposition is doing almost to the level as coaches on the field. Otherwise you can find starters that are interchangeable and drafting more than one at the same position builds a strength on your roster to fill holes.
As an NFL franchise you are never going to overhaul an entire team with one draft. Currently there are only 7 rounds which would equate to only 7 players drafted in any given year (without trades for more picks). Chances are only 50% of the players you draft are going to pan out. Most of those players are drafted in rounds 1-4. Bottom line is that you are only walking away with 3 or 4 players that you will keep long term from a given draft. The rest are busts. With these numbers it will take 5 drafts to build a decent core of starters. For those of you that are having a hard time with the math my calculator is showing that is 16-20 players. This would be great if the math worked out this way for every team to build a roster. Just draft every position along your starting line and you have a built roster.
Case Study of drafting WRs in 2003: Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals
To prove how taking multiple players at one position in the same draft versus one player to fill a hole per draft I think wide receiver is a great position. Wide receiver is the most drafted position in the first round over the last 5 years. Unfortunately teams can draft back to back to back WR’s in the first round and still have holes along their 2-3 WR starting lineup. Also, first rounder’s only pan out about 30% of the time and many studs are found in later rounds such as Terrell Owens, 3rd round, Joe Horn 3rd round, Brandon Marshall, 4th round.
Detroit Example: Drafting for WR the hard way (Also the Expensive way)
Detroit has had a real hard time with finding a wide receiving corps that sticks. They drafted 3 WRs in back to back to back drafts. The receivers they drafted were all highly touted and successful in college. They are Charles Rogers, Mike Williams, and Roy Williams. All were top ten picks and should have given the Lions the best young receiving corps in the NFL. What happened is that Detroit ended up with two busts and one WR that they are looking to trade next season. They also passed on other players that would have helped in other major areas of need. If they had just spent their first draft with Charles Rogers in 2003 taking 2 or 3 more WRs they would have been able to build a better roster thorough the next 4 drafts.
Arizona Example: Drafting for WR with the McMurtry Strategy
The Arizona cardinals hit gold with taking multiple WRs in the 2004 draft. Both receivers ended up being quality starters, but the first rounder was the slot receiver and the 3rd rounder ended up being a pro bowler. Those players being Anquan Boldin and Bryant Johnson. Looking back at past draft they didn’t even need to draft Larry Fitzgerald. That was more of a luxury pick.
Comparison of the 2 drafts and what could have been:
Arizona | Detroit | Other WRs taken in that round | |
Round 1 | WR Bryant Johnson | WR Charles Rogers | Andre Johnson |
Round 2 | WR Anquan Boldin | LB Boss Bailey | Tyron Celico |
Round 3 | LB Gerald Hayes | DE Correy Redding | Nate Burleson, Kevin Curtis |
Round 4 | None | RB Artose Pinner | Shaun McDonald, Brandon Loyyd |
Round 5 | DT Kenny King | DB Terrence Holt | Bobby Wad, Doug Gabriel |
If the Detroit Lions had taken my strategy they would have had a solid WR’s starting lineup and would have been able to take players such as QB Ben Roethlisberger in 2004, and sack machine Shaun Merriman in 2005 all whom were available for the Lions at the spots they took a WR. Detroit ended up picking up Shaun McDonald from that 2003 class anyway and he became a major contributor as a slot receiver. Had Detroit used my strategy they could have franchise QB for years to come, a full starting WR corps containing Nate Burleson and Shaun McDonald with Rogers being a bust, and a top defensive player in Shaun Merriman. I think with that corps you would have seen a very different Detroit team.
Regardless of all the so called “expert” opinions, many of this year’s top picks will be busts and teams that were banking on a particular player will be disappointed and still have a hole. If a team such as the Broncos would use the McMurtry Strategy and grab 3 or 4 interior D-lineman, their greatest area of need, I think that they would probably be done with that position for a while and would be free to build other strengths in the future such as Linebacker, Offensive Line, and Wide Receiver. Also if they draft 3 or 4 300+ lbs guys they would likely have a very decent run D and goal line unit.
| 4 March 2008 |
Denver’s 2008 Draft Scenario
Team Needs: DT, DE, LB, S, OT
I think that Denver will take back to back DT’s with their first and second rounder. Some news just came in about DT Marcus Thomas being involved with some drug charges. If they lose Thomas due to suspension they are in a major pickle with very little talent at the position. Denver needs DTs and in a hurry. They are going to build some beef to that defensive line in the draft because they didn’t do squat in free agency. Anyone who thinks that they are drafting offensive line or a safety cannot see that there is now a red alert to take as many DT’s as possible.
Denver has been known to draft many players at the same position in so that a hole is filled even if one player doesn’t pan out. Here is who I think Denver will come away with in the Draft with alternate options listed for the top 4 picks. I know I have three DT’s here but if Okam is available in the 4th Denver won’t hesitate even if they have taken 2 already. This is very likely if Ellis falls to 12.
Denver’s Mock Draft
Rd 1 # 12 : DT Sedric Ellis 6’ 308 lbs, 4.95
Alternates: DT Kentwan Balmer, DE Phillip Merling
Rd 2 # 43 : DT Pat Simms 6’ 3” 308 lbs, 4.96
Alternates: DT Dre Moore , DT Frank Okam
Rd 4 # 105: DT Frank Okam 6’ 4” 336 lbs, 5.20
Alternates: FS Marcus Griffin, ILB Beau Bell
Rd 4 # 116: ILB Beau Bell
Alternates: SS, Jamar Adams, FS Marcus Griffin
RD 5 # 132: SS Wesly Wayword
RD 5 # 143: FS Thomas Decoud
RD 7 # 203: K Teylor Melhaff
Denver’s 1st round Wish List:
DT – 1. Glenn Dorsey 6’ 1”, 310 lbs, 5.09
2. Sedirck Ellis 6’ 308 lbs, 4.95
3. Kentwan Balmer 6’ 4” 308, 5.04
DE – 1. C Long 6’ 3”, 266 lbs, 4.79
2. Vernon Gohlston 6’ 3”, 255 lbs, 4.65
3. P Merling 6’ 4”, 275 lbs, 4.71
4. C. Campbell 6’ 7” 280 lbs, 4.79
Other Players that Denver would take over the top 6 D-Lineman: OT Jake Long, RB Darren Mc Fadden.
Likely to be gone by 12: Dorsey, Ellis, C Long, V Gohlston, J Long, McFadden
Likely to be there at 12: Balmer, Merling, C Campbell
Possible to be there at 12: Dorsey, Ellis, McFadden
To see what the Denver Broncos are going to draft we need to see who will be available and what teams did in Free Agency. The mock drafts up to this point will be turned upside down from FA. Teams have a tendency to draft need over best player. Many teams made significant investments in needs in Free Agency and now will look to fill holes in the draft. Most of the mock drafts around have as many as 8 of the top 10 picks. This is ridiculous as a lot of top ten teams have horrible offenses. Usually the top 10 is balanced more 50/50 with offense and defense.
Team needs of top 12 picks:
1. Miami –QB, TE, DE
2. St Louis – DE, OL, WR
3. Atlanta – QB, OL, CB, S
4. Oakland –OL, QB, S
5. KC – OL, CB, WR
6. NY Jets – OL, LB, WR
7. NE Patriots – LB, CB, S,
8. Baltimore – QB, CB, DE
9. Cincy—DE, DT, OL, RB
10. Buffalo – WR, TE, LB
11. NO –CB, S, DT
12. Denver – DT, DE, S
Teams FA Signings that will impact need and draft:
Miami— DT Randy Starks, WR Ernest Wilford, RG Justin Smiley, QB Josh McCown
Atlanta -- RB Michael Turner, S Erik Coleman
Oakland – DT Tommy Kelly, S Gibril Wilson
KC – LB Demorrio Williams
NY Jets – G Alan Faneca, DT Jenkins
Buffalo – DT Marcus Stroud, LB Kawika Mitchell
NO -- DT Brian Young, DE Bobby McCray, LB Mark Simoneau, CB Randall Gay, LB Jonathan Vilma
Denver – WR Keary Colbert
Carolina -- DT Kris Jenkins
Mock Draft: (if drafted best prospect for their top need)
1. Miami –QB, Matt Ryan (Likely)
2. St Louis – DE, Chris Long (likely)
3. Atlanta – QB, Brian Brohm (Possible)
4. Oakland –OL, Ryan Clady (Likely)
5. KC – OL, Chris Williams (Too High)
6. NY Jets – OL, Jeff Otah (Too High)
7. NE Patriots – LB, Kieth Rivers (Likely)
8. Baltimore – QB, Colt Brenin (Possible)
9. Cincy—DE, Vernon Gohlston (Likely)
10. Buffalo – WR, Deshawn Jackson (Likely)
11. NO – CB, Aqib Talib (Likely)
12. Denver – DT, Glenn Dorsey (Dream come true)
Top 12 Mock Draft:
1. Miami – DE, Chris Long:2. St Louis – OT, Jake Long
3. Atlanta – QB, Matt Ryan:
4. Oakland –RB Darren McFadden
5. KC – OL, Ryan Clady
6. NY Jets – DE/OLB Vernan Gohlston:
7. New England– LB, Kieth Rivers:
8. Baltimore – QB, Brian Brohm:
9. Cincinnati—DT Glenn Dorsey
10. Buffalo – WR, Deshawn Jackson
11. NO – CB, Aqib Talib:
12. Denver – DT, Sedrick Ellis
| 16 February 2008 |
Denver’s Free Agency Outlook for 2008
As we approach the beginning of free agency, which will last only about 1 week, I wanted to take a look at what possible moves the Broncos will look to make. Generally speaking Denver always looks at need. First looking for players in Free Agency, and then whatever they don’t get the look in the draft. An interested twist to this year is that Denver has stated that they will not be as willing to splurge on players with issues in the free agent market. They have been burned recently and have found that they end up overpaying for older players that don’t always pan out by way of talent, health, and desire.
First off let’s take a look at positions that we know Denver will not be looking for starters on offense and defense. Special teams is an issue, but very difficult to look at from a free agency standpoint since most special teams players are backups other than kickers, punters, and returners.
Starting Positions Denver is solid at
QB, WR or Slot WR , RB, Center, R Guard, L Guard, R Tackle, Receiving TE, Blocking TE
Defense
Major Positions of Need: DT, DE, ILB, OT
So looking from this list there are more holes on the defensive side of the ball. The only true glaring need on offense would be left tackle, but only because we don’t know if Ryan Harris will be any good since he was a rookie last year. The defense that just let rushing yards pile up like the national deficit will be the largest priority. Pass rush is what Denver addressed in the draft last year with DE Jarvis Moss. Also, the previous year’s pick of Elvis Dumervil. The run defense must improve along the line and that starts with Defensive Tackles and the Middle Linebacker. I don’t think that safety is a major concern even with this being John Lynch’s last season. Abdullah and Cargile are both adequate and if you have a great front seven your safties tend to look better than they are. Last year’s 4th round steal of Marcus Thomas has not shown much looking back at last year, but considering all of the issues on the line, poor play at linebacker, and with coaching schemes that didn’t work, Thomas had a good rookie season. He is currently the top DT on the team. Other than that there is a serious drop off in talent.
Defensive line is made up of 6 to 8 players that are in a rotation. Denver is missing at least 4 quality players in that rotation. They need at least 2 more DT’s and one more DE that can be an every down run stopper. Here is the list of players that I think Denver will look at and possibly sign.
Defensive Tackles available in free agency and on the trading block
Albert Haynesworth, DT, Unrestricted Free Agent
Correy Williams, DT, Unrestricted Free Agent
Tom Kelly, DT, Unrestricted Free Agent
Shaun Rogers, DT, On the trading block
There are other players, but these are the premium players at Defensive Tackle that I think Denver will pursue. The best prospect is Green Bay DT Correy Williams. He is young and has room for improvement and will be an immediate upgrade next to Thomas. He will come at a high price and maybe too high. The biggest name will be Haynesworth. The bottom line is that when he was hurt and out of the lineup the Titans went from a top 3 Defense to average. He is a difference maker and shuts down offenses like the Colts. The issue with him is injury, and price. Some team will splurge and make him one of the highest paid DTs in the league. I am not so sure that will be Denver. Although, if there is one player to risk it all on it would have to be Haynesworth. Tom Kelly is a solid player, but he finished the season on IR and may not be a significant improvement than what can be had in the draft. A serious boom or bust opportunity is with Shaun Rogers. He can be the best DT in the league when he wants to be. His issues are desire and weight. Talent is not lacking. Denver has been able to pull off trades with Detroit and has a working relationship with the front office. Unfortunately, Detroit is looking for a premium defensive player in return, and Denver’s only player that they may be interested in would be DJ Williams. The only other option would be trading Denver’s 2nd round or one of their 4th round draft picks. Denver could still pull off a trade, but Detroit’s price may be too high.
In the end I think we will see little movement in regards to DT in Free Agency. The biggest splash Denver may make is in the Linebacker spot. Denver needs linebacker that tackle runners, and can cover. DJ Williams and company, was schooled more often than not in the End Zone by receivers cutting across the field. The one and only linebacker that I think Denver is going to really go after is Lance Briggs. He is young enough to be a good 5-7 year investment and can play. There are no Middle Linebackers that are worth talking about this year in free agency except for Jonathon Vilma who is only up for trade and not a free agent. Denver would likely be looking to deal a 4th rounder and a player like CB D Foxworth. However a player like Briggs or Vilma would be able to stop drives. Most other linebackers are backups or getting ready to retire.
The issues with their WR Javon Walker will be interesting, but he will likely be cut because nobody will give Denver very much for him. So Denver may look to sign a WR. Also a few no name linebackers, wide receivers, and safeties may show up to camp.
Best case scenario is that Denver is able to upgrade with one of the DT’s and manage to sign Briggs. I am guessing that Denver doesn’t get the guys they want for the price they want along the D line and signs nobody. They will more towards obtaining draft picks and building talent through this year’s draft. The quick fix approach seems to be out in Denver and it will be a fairly quite offseason unless they are able to trade for Rogers or sign Briggs.
| 3 January 2008 |
Breaking Down the New Denver Empire
With the announcement of Matt Lepsis’ retirement it is clear that this is a new era for the Denver Broncos. Since winning back to back Super Bowls 10 years ago, Mike Shanahan has tried to fill holes of a crumbling roster that was as dominant as any in NFL history in a 3 year span from 1996-1998. The biggest hole that was left was from the legendary QB John Elway when he announced his retirement after leading his team to victory and his 5th Super Bowl. After John there was the offensive line that was the Oak Tree in Denver with its zone blocking scheme that would churn out no-names into 1,400 yard rushers. Oh yea, there was a guy named Terrell Davis who rushed for 2,000 yards behind that line. Finally the defense which was known for coming up with the big play has no one from those Super Bowl teams, and recently has gone through the Cleveland castoffs, as well as a laundry list of big name busts.
So now after a disappointing season that Shanahan has called his worst in a 13 year career, we are looking at the rebuilding of a powerhouse. Yes every team has to rebuild. Look at the 49ers. Shanahan finally has his leader to build around in Jay Cutler and a core group of playmakers. Here are my thoughts on the roster heading into the draft and free agency.
The Lines: O-Line: Looking at the building process we have to look at the lines. No one looks good behind them if the big guys upfront don’t do their jobs. Only a few Bronco veterans look to return to what will be a very young team. The studs of that O line in Nalen, Lepsis, and Hamilton are possibly all going to be gone after retirement, injuries, and salary cap casualties. If not this year, than most definitely after the 2008 season these are guys are all but gone. In my opinion this is where Denver may need to look at building some depth for the future or find itself in trouble when the injury bug hits. I think the Broncos have a good young group for starters that could really gel in 2008. Defense is too much of a priority to look to the O-line early in the draft and will have to wait until later rounds. The new version of O-line may be better for pass protection due to the added weight.
LT Ryan Harris (2nd year, 3rd Rd Pick, with no starting experience. 300 lbs to Lepsis 290.)
LG Chris Kuper (302 lbs. Has Started to come into his own)
C Tom Nalen/ Chris Myers (Nalen may announce his retirement before the draft after 14 seasons. Ended season on injured reserve.)
RG Ben Hamilton (Could be the only veteran left for 2008. Ended season on injured reserve.)
RT Erik Pears (Nice 300 pounder that was a FA rookie pick up in 2005)
D-Line
Glen Dorsey will be off the board, but the other two guys are Sedric Ellis and Kentwan Balmer. One of these guys will be called by Denver on Draft day. In the 2nd round they may look to go in this direction again if the 320 pound Frank Okam is available. I am saying don’t be surprised to see the Broncos take back to back DTs in the draft. They did that with DE’s last year and seem to like stacking up on the same position of need in a given draft. They did the same thing in 2005 when they took 3 DB’s. It’s not a bad idea considering how many drafted players turn out to be busts.
LE Jarvis Moss (1st rounder who was showing improvement until an injury. Should be back for training camp)
LT Marcus Thomas (Wore down near the end of the season, but showed some playmaking flashes)
RT Someone not on the current roster (Mallard will be in the rotation, but is not a starter. The 1st or 2nd round draft pick will take this position.)
LE Tim Crowder (2nd rounder that could explode in his 2nd year. Engleberger is a hard player, but not strong enough to be the starter.)
Pass Rush Specialist Elvis Dumervil (Stud with 12 ½ sacks in 2007. He shouldn’t be playing every down.)
QB
QB1 Jay Cutler (Could be MVP of the league in 2008 ……. or just make the Pro Bowl behind Manning and Brady.)
QB 2 Patrick Ramsey ( A veteran who is smart with a good arm)
RB
RB Travis Henry (Will be the starter for 2008. He has too many babies’ mouths to feed.)
HB Selvin Young (From out of nowhere, stud speedster)
FB Cedric Cobbs/ Mike Bell (Bell may end up as the starter.)
WR
WR1 Javon Walker (See Javon, I put a 1 next to your name. Please shut up and play.)
WR2 Brandon Marshall (Stud)
WR3 Brandon Stokley (Other Stud with the name Brandon)
TE: The Broncos seem are set with their top two guys. A pass catching TE in Scheffler and a blocking stud in Graham. This will be a staple in the near future. They may look to add a little depth here in Free Agency.
TE1 Tony Scheffler
TE2 Daniel Graham
LB
WLB DJ Williams
MLB Lance Briggs or someone else
SLB Lance Briggs or someone else (Ian Gold is gone or a backup)
DB
RCB Bailey (Only Pro Bowler for 2007)
FS Abdullah
SS Ferguson
LCB Bly
So there is the start of the new Denver Broncos. They will have to have another great draft along the lines in 2008 and look for Linebackers and depth in free agency. It takes 4 years to build a championship caliber team. 2006 was the start with Jay Cutler, Marshall, Scheffler, and Dumervil. They need to build a championship defense and you may see the final pieces fall into place in 2008 and 2009.